Covid-19 Crushed Live Music-Will Concerts Come Back Summer/Fall 2021?

By Martine Ehrenclou

Covid-19 crushed live music worldwide. Could it return by summer/fall 2021? It’s possible that concerts, live shows and music festivals will return in some form. But here’s the catch—it all depends on where you live.

Why?

Because each of the 50 states in the US has their own Covid-19 restrictions and guidelines about re-opening music venues. These restrictions are intended to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and help keep attendees safe. These restrictions provided by city and state authorities include reduced attendee capacity, social distancing, face coverings, and healthy attendance. You can go to states like Florida or Texas and find live music because they have more relaxed restrictions.

Forget projections by music industry leaders and concert promoters who have everything to gain by stating that large capacity venues will be open for concerts by June. They might, but consider the source.

Some live music might already be happening in your area but again it depends on where you live. Even counties within a state have different restrictions about live music, gatherings indoors and outdoors, attendance and more. They are based on step-by-step processes or stages or tiers intended to open up businesses in a way that doesn’t cause an increase in Covid-19 cases and deaths. Those steps to re-open clubs, bars and concert venues in many states are based on the following:

1. Increase in vaccinations
2. Decrease in deaths from Covid-19
3. Decrease in Covid-19 hospitalizations

Based on the above and your specific county or state determines if live music in clubs, bars, concert venues and large scale gatherings for concerts will take place. Some counties and states don’t seem to rely on any of the above criteria. So you can see how confusing it is and how difficult it is to predict.

Many major European tours such as Aerosmith, Pearl Jam and others have been postponed until 2022, as have large scale festivals like Coachella and Stagecoach, which have yet to post rescheduled dates. Even so, some hold out hope that larger festivals might take place late summer or fall 2021. And maybe they will. I sure hope so because I miss live music just as much as you do.

What does the science say?

National disease expert and director of the NIH Dr. Anthony Fauci said that to get back to some semblance of normalcy by Fall 2021, between 75% and 85% of the population will need to be vaccinated against Covid-19. “That would create an umbrella of immunity to prevent further spread of the virus,” he said.

Right now, 39.5% of the US population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 25.4 % has been fully vaccinated. See here for info. 

New York became the first state to offer digital proof of vaccination and it’s voluntary. Proof of negative Covid-19 tests are also an option. California is encouraging venues to require vaccine passports, proof of full Covid-19 vaccination. Private companies and medical and education institutions are already working to produce a pass, not unlike an airline boarding pass. Many countries require travelers to carry “yellow cards” that verify vaccinations against deadly diseases.

Given the above, how quickly can we anticipate concert venues to open? We just don’t know.

The music business is still in flux. Music industry professionals might be able to wager a guess on the timing of live music to return but there are a number of variables involved:

1. Percentage of population vaccinated
2. Number of Covid-19 cases (decrease)
3. Number of Covid-19 deaths (decrease)
4. Number of Covid-19 hospitalizations (decrease)

We are certainly heading in the right direction. Covid-19 cases have declined, which is great news all around.

Can we make it happen?

Can we get there by August or September of 2021? I just don’t know. There are too many variables. I sure hope so. I want to see live music more than anything. I want to see our music industry back to normal as soon as possible, I want to see all musicians back on their feet, all those employed by the music industry back to work.

On the upside, there are some local clubs in Southern California opening as well as other venues opening across the US. Great news if you’re near one of them or are willing to travel. Outdoor venue Red Rocks in Colorado is filling up their event schedule with limited capacity crowds of 2500 attendees for physically distanced shows. Red Rocks does have info on their website about show cancellations. Would I go? If I’m fully vaccinated, I would.

So who is hitting the road? These are just a few.

Tedeschi Trucks announced a series of socially distanced, limited capacity performances coming this summer, called ‘Fireside LIVE.’ They are billing the act as ‘Tedeschi Trucks’ without ‘band’ out of respect to their band members who are unable to join the tour because of conditions relating to the pandemic. Fireside LIVE will start June 11 and 12 in Jacksonville, FL. See here.

Blues rock guitarist, singer, songwriter Joe Bonamassa is also on tour. See here.

Beloved bluesman Tab Benoit is on a national tour right now and some gigs include blues rocker Alastair Greene and Josh Garrett. See here.

Blues guitarist, singer, songwriter, producer Mike Zito is also doing a socially distanced shows. See here.

Blues rocker Joanna Connor is also touring, see here.

A different scenario is happening in states like North Carolina. They are allowing 50% capacity for live events. Virginia allows 30% capacity. New York now allows small and medium venues to be open at 33% capacity. Some larger venues are waiting to reopen in the coming weeks and some will remain closed until full capacity is allowed. It’s expensive to put on a show for all venues, small or large.

How to find live music in your area:

1. Go to the band’s website and see which live shows are still on.
2. Go to your county Health Department website and see what is opening and when.
3. Go the venue website of your choice and find out which concerts/shows are a go and which are cancelled.

You’ll most likely find in many areas that “standing room” or “general admission” has been eliminated for the time being and that venues require you to be seated.

Do I have tickets for rescheduled concerts for late summer? Yes. I have tickets for three shows, two indoor. But I don’t quite know what to expect. Will there be physical distancing if my seats are guaranteed along with everyone else’s? Cancellations are still a possibility.

I wish I could predict but I just can’t. I’m hopeful and grateful that live music is starting to come back.

Have you attended live music shows in the last couple of months? Tell us about it in the comment section below.